It seems to me that every pundit and his dog this week has suddenly become a middle east expert. A common theme is that, of course, Iran was always going to block the Strait of Hormuz.
However what I haven't seen a clear answer on is why, if that was so obvious, hasn't been more to be done to secure the strait over the last fifty years? Appreciate all learned thoughts. Has there been infrastructure installed that was quickly disabled or is it just not there? Cheers.
My best guess is Trump will do whatever is needed to take back effective control of the strait of Hormuz. We are under estimating his determination to win this fight against Iran. He has the stomach to continue this fight and the incentives to take back control of the strait point in favor of achieving this goal. His legacy is at stake and he knows this is the right thing to do. For all the talk about his impulsiveness and lack of moral compass, he has been remarkably consistent over the years about his position against Iran’s regime.
I'll note that Iran has laid out conditions- guarantees against future attacks, compensation- but also they've got a negative incentive to negotiate, given the last two negotiations turned into surprise decapitation strikes. Who would be stupid enough to put their head in a guillotine and try to negotiate a third time?
It seems to me that every pundit and his dog this week has suddenly become a middle east expert. A common theme is that, of course, Iran was always going to block the Strait of Hormuz.
However what I haven't seen a clear answer on is why, if that was so obvious, hasn't been more to be done to secure the strait over the last fifty years? Appreciate all learned thoughts. Has there been infrastructure installed that was quickly disabled or is it just not there? Cheers.
Http://preceperi.substack.com
My best guess is Trump will do whatever is needed to take back effective control of the strait of Hormuz. We are under estimating his determination to win this fight against Iran. He has the stomach to continue this fight and the incentives to take back control of the strait point in favor of achieving this goal. His legacy is at stake and he knows this is the right thing to do. For all the talk about his impulsiveness and lack of moral compass, he has been remarkably consistent over the years about his position against Iran’s regime.
Thanks Nadav. We welcome your thoughts on how unmanned airship drones could completely resolve the issue of the Strait of Hormuz within the next 2–3 years: https://furtherium.substack.com/p/how-the-strait-of-hormuz-problem
I'll note that Iran has laid out conditions- guarantees against future attacks, compensation- but also they've got a negative incentive to negotiate, given the last two negotiations turned into surprise decapitation strikes. Who would be stupid enough to put their head in a guillotine and try to negotiate a third time?