The new "Supreme Leader" is not a top religious figure, but either a lead or a figurehead of the IRG. In effect, it seems the regime is transitioning from its religion-based authority - and attached legitimacy - to a more standard, force-based dictatorship. Could the weakening of the religious element lead to more pragmatic approaches, at least toward tge external world?
The Iranian regime sees the anxiety about oil prices as a signal that it will survive. Resolve and resourcefulness is necessary to prove it wrong as is the element of surprise
The US government could cap the price of fuel at the pump and reduce the price effect of war on American consumers. Most US petrol comes from North America and the US could swap fuel with Mexico and Venezuela to make them neutral. This would like raise prices elsewhere. But, it may keep the public from revolting and allow Trump to continue the war (less pressure). At some point, China could pressure Iran to let the Strait open. Since they are supposedly sending ships with drone parts, there could be a deal. Let them pass but let oil pass the other way. Or bomb the ships carrying the parts. Also, the US could take over or bomb Karj Island, as you said, if Iran does not open the Strait.
Nadav - do you have any reporting on the health status of Mojtaba - some say he’s dead; some say his leg was amputated. Is he really acting as the supreme leader?
The new "Supreme Leader" is not a top religious figure, but either a lead or a figurehead of the IRG. In effect, it seems the regime is transitioning from its religion-based authority - and attached legitimacy - to a more standard, force-based dictatorship. Could the weakening of the religious element lead to more pragmatic approaches, at least toward tge external world?
It means: they are not budging.
This war will drag on.
The Iranian regime sees the anxiety about oil prices as a signal that it will survive. Resolve and resourcefulness is necessary to prove it wrong as is the element of surprise
The US government could cap the price of fuel at the pump and reduce the price effect of war on American consumers. Most US petrol comes from North America and the US could swap fuel with Mexico and Venezuela to make them neutral. This would like raise prices elsewhere. But, it may keep the public from revolting and allow Trump to continue the war (less pressure). At some point, China could pressure Iran to let the Strait open. Since they are supposedly sending ships with drone parts, there could be a deal. Let them pass but let oil pass the other way. Or bomb the ships carrying the parts. Also, the US could take over or bomb Karj Island, as you said, if Iran does not open the Strait.
Nadav - do you have any reporting on the health status of Mojtaba - some say he’s dead; some say his leg was amputated. Is he really acting as the supreme leader?